Investment Idea: Citra Marga Nusapahala Persada, Target Price Rp 1.590

 II-CMNP

Top-Down

Indonesia’s economy today still so-so, indicated by real retail sales that has been published by Bank of Indonesia. So for a safe bet, we better put the stock on a company that has less than one beta. It’s mean that the company will perform okay in not-so-good economic condition. Many toll road companies have less than one beta, so it is perfect for our safe bet today.

 

Bottom-Up

When we invest let’s be honest, we want to spend less money to get more money. So we want undervalued stock that will generate income in the future. To identifying it we can use some ratio and compare it with other companies in the same sector.
PT. Citra Marga Nusapahala Persada (Ticker: CMNP) is matched to all criteria.

  • Debt to Equity (0,42) below industry average (0,98)
  • Price per Earning (15,8) below industry average (27,74)
  • Earning per Share (187) above industry average (133)
  • Profit Margin (28,75%) above industry average (25,9%)

 

Fundamental of CMNP

Industry Drivers

  • Indonesian government policy about infrastructure, one of them is about toll road.
  • Development of rural city.
  • Other industry growth, because it increases the demand for delivery which uses toll road.
  • Numbers of vehicles growth.

 

Competitors

PT. Jasa Marga
Government owned company that also operating toll road, a direct competitor of CMNP
PT. Nusantara Infrastructure
Privately owned companies, not a direct competitor of CMNP because they do almost all kind of infrastructures.

Management

President Director: Shadik Wahono
He has led many companies before led CMNP, so he seems to have the capability to run this company. But he had some issue back in 2011. So it’s better to put some healthy amount of skepticism.
Vice President: Fitria Yusuf
She seems don’t have many relevant experiences to running company in the sector. Also, she is the daughter of the founder.

Risk

  • Government inconsistency.
  • Rising cost of land acquisition.
  • Delays in project development.
  • Market competition.

 

Valuation of CMNP

Using historical data, I have built the financial model of CMNP. For the detail, you can download it here. I get the value of Rp 3.181 by using DCF and value of Rp 6.413 using P/E price multiple (using industry average P/R).

I choose just using the value from DCF because it seems more sensible when compared to the price nowadays (about Rp. 1.700). Because I think I must put a healthy amount of skepticism in management I put margin of safety 50% from the value. So when the price drops the stock still valuable.

Derive from that I get target price of Rp 1.590 (Rp 3.181*50%).
Today (09/08/2016) the closing price is Rp 1.760.

Also, you can download the investment research here.

 

Disclaimer: The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation.  I make no representations as to accuracy, completeness, suitability, or validity, of any information. I will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use.

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